Mastering Market Trends: The Path to Consistent Profitability in a Dynamic Global Economy

Hello, students of Diamond Ridge Financial Academy!  

I'm Charles Hanover, and it's great to be here with you again. In this era where technology and finance are deeply merging, global markets are going through huge shifts. We're standing at the edge of a major market transformation. From the rise of AI to the rapid growth of digital assets, every market fluctuation brings challenges but also creates huge opportunities.  

Tonight, we'll start with the latest market trends, dive deep into the logic of long-term stable profits and help you master key strategies to handle market swings and achieve consistent gains.

Today, the UK stock market showed choppy movements. The FTSE 100 index climbed in early trading but later pulled back due to multiple factors, with market sentiment turning cautious. The UK Office for National Statistics reported that the unemployment rate for the three months ending in Dec stayed at 4.4%, slightly below the 4.5% forecast. At the same time, wages grew faster than expected, with overall pay rising by 6.0%. This data suggests the job market remains resilient on the surface but also complicates the Bank of England's rate-cut expectations. Even though BOE Governor Bailey tried to downplay the impact of wage growth on inflation, the market remains cautious about future rate policies, limiting investor confidence.

Looking at sector performance, defence stocks, which surged yesterday due to the Russia-Ukraine situation, pulled back today as investors focused more on peace talk progress, making market sentiment more conservative.  

A bigger concern is that expectations for the UK's future economic growth are worsening. Energy costs are set to rise 5% in Apr, and the continued increase in living expenses will further weaken consumer spending, putting more downside pressure on UK stocks. While some bank stocks saw a brief rebound, the UK market remains unstable due to slowing economic growth, inflation pressures, higher-than-expected wage growth and global uncertainties. This underscores the need for investors to stay cautious and alert.

In the US, stocks had a mixed session. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showed small gains at one point, the Dow remained under pressure as the market kept moving around record highs. However, investor pessimism has climbed to its highest level since 2023, putting the US stock rally under serious pressure.  

On the policy side, concerns about Trump's reciprocal tariff policy have eased a bit but haven't gone away completely. Although the policy isn't in effect yet, its potential impact on global trade is already becoming clear. The import car tariffs set to take effect in Apr are seen as a possible trigger for new trade tensions. The White House has hinted that the tariff plan will move forward quickly in the coming weeks. If global trade tensions rise, corporate profits will take a big hit, and the market could face heavier selling pressure.

From a market structure perspective, the US stock rally is mostly driven by a few big tech stocks, while signs of weakness are growing inside the market. In the S&P 500, less than 60% of stocks are above their 50-day moving averages, showing that upward momentum is fading and some sectors may have already peaked.  

BTIG's technical analysts warned that US stocks are in a seasonally weak period, and the recent narrow trading range might signal a deeper correction ahead. The AAII individual investor survey shows that bearish sentiment has climbed to 47.3%, the highest since Nov last year.

Meanwhile, the S&P Global Investment Manager Index shows that institutional investors’ risk appetite is dropping fast, and their one-month return expectations for US stocks have turned negative. On top of that, uncertainty around Fed policy is adding to market concerns. Fed Governor Waller said the latest economic data supports keeping rates high, and if inflation remains stubborn, the Fed might delay rate cuts. This statement tightened liquidity expectations, weakening investor confidence in easy money, which could put pressure on stock valuations.  

Overall, while US stocks still have some short-term support from market momentum, factors like trade policy risks, worsening investor sentiment and tighter liquidity are weighing on the market. The S&P 500 may be near record highs, but internal market weakness is growing. If money starts flowing out, a more significant correction could be on the way.

In today’s uncertain market, many investors wonder how to make steady profits despite market ups and downs. Long-term stable profits aren’t out of reach. The key is to build a system that balances risk and return, ensuring higher gains while keeping risks low. Every investment comes with some level of uncertainty, but real experts don’t try to avoid risk. Instead, they use smart strategies and proven methods to keep risk under control while maximizing returns. This applies not only to traditional financial markets but also to Crypto and even strategic investments like arbitrage trading.

Everyone hopes for bigger market swings in trading to create more profit opportunities. At the same time, they want as little risk as possible; some even want to avoid all risks and refuse to take any losses. But in reality, completely risk-free investing does not exist. No single trade is 100% risk-free, and bank deposits aren’t absolutely safe because banks themselves can go bankrupt.

Looking back at history, many US banks collapsed during the 2008 financial crisis, causing countless businesses and individuals to go bankrupt. For example, Lehman Brothers, one of the world’s oldest investment banks, went under due to the subprime mortgage crisis, marking one of the most shocking events in global financial history.  

Similarly, in early 2023, the US financial market saw another wave of bank failures. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank both collapsed due to liquidity issues. SVB’s failure even impacted its UK branch, which was eventually bought by HSBC for a symbolic £1. Additionally, Credit Suisse faced a financial crisis and was acquired by UBS. These cases prove that even the banking system isn’t completely safe, so how could the investment market be? That’s why recognizing investment risks and learning to find opportunities within them is a core skill every investor should have.

Since all investments carry some level of risk, does that mean we should avoid investing altogether? Of course not. In fact, not investing is an even bigger risk. Over time, inflation eats away at wealth and without a solid investment plan, money not only fails to grow but may also lose value. It’s just like travelling, whether by car or plane, there’s always some level of risk, but that doesn’t stop us from travelling. Instead, we take safety measures to reduce the risk, like driving reliable cars, wearing seatbelts and following traffic rules. These steps help lower accident chances. Likewise, in investing, we can use strategic methods to manage risk and ensure steady financial growth.

Among the many ways to reduce investment risk, diversification and arbitrage trading are some of the most effective strategies. The key to diversification is not putting all your money into a single market or asset but spreading it across different asset classes to minimize the impact of market swings on your overall portfolio. On the other hand, arbitrage trading takes advantage of price differences between markets to generate risk-free profits, avoiding potential losses from one-way market movements.

Take arbitrage trading as an example. The core idea is to profit from price differences between markets with zero risk. For instance, by arbitraging across different markets, times or asset types, traders can significantly lower the risk of any single trade. Recently, the Trump administration announced higher tariffs on steel, causing steel futures prices to surge. Historically, similar policies have pushed up the prices of steel-related stocks and iron ore futures. Investors can capitalize on this by trading these related assets. Simply put, market prices often move in correlation, and arbitrage trading takes advantage of these connections to find risk-free profit opportunities between related assets.

The Crypto market offers even more diverse arbitrage opportunities. Unlike traditional markets, Crypto has both tech and currency attributes, making its price movements more sensitive. Especially under the influence of global policies and economic events, Crypto prices tend to react more quickly. For example, after Trump’s tariff policy was announced, the market expected liquidity in traditional assets to be affected, while decentralized assets like BTC could attract more safe-haven inflows. In such cases, investors can use arbitrage trading within the Crypto market to capture profit opportunities amid volatility. If BTC’s price surges, investors can track other tokens that are still at lower prices and take advantage of the price gap by buying low and selling high to secure steady profits.

Another major advantage of arbitrage trading is that it not only reduces risk in a single market but also helps balance market uncertainty through cross-asset trading. For instance, with rising global trade tensions, some tech stocks may take a hit, while certain commodities and safe-haven assets may gain momentum. By using cross-market arbitrage, investors can flexibly allocate funds across multiple markets, reducing the impact of market fluctuations on overall returns.

In fact, the logic behind arbitrage trading and diversification is similar to risk management in everyday life. Just like a business wouldn’t rely on a single source of income but would expand into multiple areas to ensure cash flow even if one industry struggles, investors who focus only on a single market or asset are essentially putting all their eggs in one basket. A single investment could suffer huge losses if an unexpected market event occurs. However, by using arbitrage trading or diversification, investors can still balance risk through profits from other markets, even if one market experiences short-term volatility.

The same logic applies to portfolio investments. Take the “Three-Tier Investment Strategy” I recently shared. It’s a trading model that works in both offensive and defensive situations. Offence is using contract trading to maximize returns during market fluctuations. Defence is building a safety cushion through fixed deposits and spot investments to protect assets. The recent performance of AQS has once again proven the effectiveness of this strategy. It surged from $0.7 before the public test to a recent high of around $1.6, then pulled back to the previous high of $1.2, making this an excellent opportunity to buy the dip.

Why is AQS such an important asset right now? There are two key reasons behind its rise. First, the quantitative trading system will officially launch in a little over a month, which is expected to drive AQS even higher. Second, the system’s growing influence in the global financial space has even drawn some attacks from competitors. But rather than weakening its value, this only makes AQS the centre of attention, further fueling its price growth.

In the Three-Tier Investment Strategy, fixed deposits and spot investments act as a safety shield, providing enough cushioning to ensure contract trading can maximize profits. It’s like driving a high-speed car. If you want to enjoy the thrill of speed safely, you need airbags, a stable frame and top-tier protection systems. The same goes for investing. You can’t rely on high-risk, high-reward strategies alone to achieve stable profits. Only by managing risks properly and balancing your investments can you truly stay ahead in both offence and defence.

This principle also applies to trend trading. Take our last BTC trend as an example. The market gradually released liquidity after the Fed ended its rate hikes last year. When the rate cut expectations became clear in Sep, we positioned long on BTC in advance. As shown in the chart, when the BOLL bands flattened out and started to expand upward, we opened our initial position around $28K, investing 20% of our funds. The key to this strategy is to start with a light position when the trend begins, ensuring that we don’t take on too much risk before the trend is fully confirmed.

Later, as BTC surged toward $35K, our account had already gained solid profits. With these early gains as a safety cushion, we could confidently increase our position by another 20% or more. The advantage of this approach is that even if there’s a short-term pullback, we can hold our positions steadily due to the profit cushion we’ve built. When the trend further confirms and enters an acceleration phase (as shown in Chart ③), we can increase our position to 80% or even full capacity, maximizing returns. At this stage, even if the market experiences slight corrections, we remain profitable and avoid panic due to price swings. This rolling-position strategy is the core of steady trend trading.

Overall, regardless of our trading strategy, the core goal is always the same: to control investment risks through smart planning. Risk can’t be eliminated but can be quantified and controlled, ultimately leading to steady profits. This logic is similar to car safety systems; a car needs more than just a strong body structure to ensure maximum passenger safety. It also requires airbags, automatic braking systems and other safety measures. Likewise, in investing, tools like arbitrage risk-hedging mechanisms, fixed deposits and spot holdings in the Three-Tier Investment Strategy, and rolling-position trend trading all help build an investment safety cushion.

However, in real trading, one key factor for stability is capital size. The more capital you have, the more strategies you can use and the better risk control you can achieve. Think of a high-end car; its safety depends not just on driving skills but also on build quality, stability and advanced safety systems, all of which require higher production costs.  

In the investment market, the amount of capital you have determines how many risk management strategies you can use. More capital allows for better asset allocation, reducing the impact of market fluctuations. However, for investors with limited funds, the real challenge is how to create a stable strategy within a smaller capital base, a question that deserves serious thought.

This is also a recent trend inside the financial academy. There has been a difference in perspective between students with more capital and those with less. Some students with larger funds want more personalized investment guidance. For example, one student shared, “I’m ready to invest £1.05M and hope the academy can provide one-on-one guidance. I’m willing to pay a service fee for more secure investing.” They focus more on fine-tuning large capital trades, risk management and long-term asset planning, so they prefer more detailed strategy guidance.

On the other hand, some students have less than £20K in starting capital. They hope the academy will continue helping smaller investors grow their funds efficiently, stating, “I hope the academy won’t give up on students with less capital. We also need more learning and guidance.” My original goal was not just to help people grow their wealth but also to help those with smaller funds build their initial capital.  

However, in the financial academy’s group chat, some students disagreed due to differences in trading perspectives caused by capital gaps. This has led to debates and even some students leaving the group. This situation has affected the academy’s overall atmosphere and revealed some weaknesses in our current investment service system.

Faced with such different needs, first, I want to thank everyone for trusting the academy. Your support is what drives our analysts and assistant teams forward, and seeing you earn steady profits in the market is our greatest achievement. At the same time, our efforts have also helped us promote the quantitative trading system, allowing more people to use scientific investment strategies for stable returns. So, no matter how much capital you have, we will never give up on any student who is willing to learn and grow with us. If you have any investment questions at any time in the future, you can always reach out to us. Our goal is to help every student navigate the market steadily.

That said, the reality is that our professional team is limited in size. Our analysts and assistants are already under high pressure, handling daily investment inquiries, strategy analysis and trading guidance. We want to provide personalized investment advice for every student, tailoring strategies based on risk tolerance, capital size and trading time. But doing this requires significant resources. That’s why we are actively expanding our team to offer higher-quality, more customized investment services.

In response to student feedback, we have decided to hold a three-way discussion, bringing together project representatives, the financial academy and selected student representatives. We will work together to explore long-term cooperation plans and develop a solution that benefits all students. Our goal is to ensure that both large and small investors get the most value from the academy’s guidance so that every student who is willing to learn and grow has the opportunity to seize the golden chances in the market.

The possible solutions based on everyone’s suggestions are as follows:  

① Establish a personalized investment guidance plan. We can consider offering premium investment advisory services for students with larger capital, even one-on-one guidance from senior analysts. This would help them create customized investment plans, including capital allocation, trading strategies and market analysis. Not only would this improve investment security, but it would also make capital utilization more efficient. We can support students with smaller funds through regular strategy sharing, group discussions, and real-time market analysis to help them gradually improve their trading skills and achieve stable growth.

② Expand the academy’s team to improve service quality. The financial academy is already working on adding more analysts and assistant team members, with plans to gradually expand over the next few weeks. Our goal is to ensure that every student receives timely and effective investment guidance, preventing anyone from being overlooked due to high consultation demand. At the same time, we are also optimizing our intelligent trading system to make strategies more efficient and reduce the limitations caused by human intervention.

③ Introduce a cooperation mechanism for a three-way win. This discussion is not just about improving the academy’s investment guidance system but also about finding a long-term win-win model. Project teams aim to attract more investors through the quantitative trading system and increase market depth. For the financial academy, we want more students to see real investment returns, enhancing our influence and paving the way for future sales of the quantitative trading system. Students, whether they have large or small capital, all seek stable ways to make profits in the market. We must ensure that every investor who joins the academy benefits rather than being limited by their capital size.

④ Develop a long-term plan to build a more professional investment ecosystem. We hope to use this meeting to create a sustainable investment system where the quantitative trading system is not just a trading tool but an intelligent system that helps investors earn steady profits. We plan to introduce more refined investment strategy categories, such as conservative, aggressive and short-term arbitrage strategies, allowing students with different trading styles to find the best approach for themselves. Additionally, we are further optimizing trading strategies to make investing smarter and more efficient.

Our ultimate goal is to help every student find the investment method that suits them best. Whether it’s an investor holding millions of pounds looking to grow wealth through stable strategies or someone just starting out and aiming to build their first pot of capital, they can all receive precise support and guidance here. The market is always fair; the key is knowing how to use the right tools, strategies, and trends to allocate funds optimally and maximize profits. This is the core reason behind our three-way discussion to build a long-term win-win investment system, ensuring all students can stand firm amid market fluctuations, steadily grow their wealth and achieve consistent profits.

That’s it for today’s sharing. I hope today’s discussion helps you better understand the nature of investment opportunities and the importance of portfolio diversification. Everyone has different capital sizes and risk preferences, but market opportunities are always there, and the key is knowing how to seize them. Especially in today’s volatile global market, a well-balanced portfolio can not only reduce risk but also maximize returns through asset synergy. Smart money management and accurate market judgment are the keys to long-term profits.

Of course, market opportunities are fair, but the depth of your participation depends on your capital size. This week, major economies are negotiating tariffs, adding uncertainty to policies and increasing market volatility. This battle will create strong market trends, making it one of the most important investment opportunities in the near term. As long as you participate, you have a chance to make good profits. The more capital you have and the better your strategy, the bigger the profit potential.

Today’s market has already taken off, with Bitcoin swinging over $3,000. Those who followed the trading plan have already made 25% in profits today, and this is just the beginning. The trend is accelerating, and by Thursday, market volatility is expected to increase further, making it a key time for short-term trading setups.  

Opportunities always belong to those who prepare and take action. The market is sending clear signals—it’s up to us to follow the trend and ride this wave. Make sure to adjust your trading strategy, prepare your funds and stay ahead of the game. The market won’t wait for hesitation, and wealth won’t favour those who are slow to act. Take action now and seize this chance to double your profits!